Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.217955 4.963595 5.789207 6.769281 7.899028 9.158436 10.666691
2025-08-10 2.838226 3.768570 4.913809 6.418825 8.335125 10.683243 13.766878
2025-08-17 2.001824 2.950722 4.229659 6.060553 8.591682 11.941124 16.676977
2025-08-24 1.533077 2.474266 3.845623 5.956485 9.082161 13.488836 20.105580
2025-08-31 1.216979 2.130261 3.556269 5.895370 9.571295 15.042457 23.686923
2025-09-07 1.045856 1.966325 3.493023 6.138666 10.513075 17.329392 28.569407
2025-09-14 0.877411 1.765849 3.326027 6.172397 11.105863 19.124439 32.872895
2025-09-21 0.742598 1.593867 3.171086 6.189550 11.653637 20.883803 37.280318
2025-09-28 0.633515 1.445818 3.029228 6.198821 12.173487 22.632493 41.826745
2025-10-05 0.604866 1.453153 3.177979 6.761044 13.742734 26.324352 50.030437
2025-10-12 0.544423 1.379672 3.153733 6.982066 14.698196 29.018499 56.727678
2025-10-19 0.493193 1.315616 3.136753 7.211142 15.689032 31.862767 63.943933
2025-10-26 0.427682 1.206492 3.010726 7.207266 16.241957 33.990567 70.131709
2025-11-02 0.354860 1.062684 2.782952 6.951370 16.251064 35.085494 74.493250
2025-11-09 0.289321 0.921136 2.533430 6.605166 16.019735 35.674924 77.922782
2025-11-16 0.247792 0.834665 2.400555 6.506323 16.310396 37.343588 83.652702
2025-11-23 0.214392 0.762921 2.291032 6.444907 16.673797 39.193270 89.914464
2025-11-30 0.198951 0.742063 2.311686 6.710618 17.827012 42.836013 100.242294
2025-12-07 0.176785 0.693753 2.247931 6.747849 18.436392 45.341473 108.345725
2025-12-14 0.156882 0.647554 2.181334 6.766685 19.001452 47.798010 116.549521
2025-12-21 0.139272 0.604426 2.115446 6.776824 19.544633 50.252628 124.953676
2025-12-28 0.139518 0.627239 2.254791 7.386670 21.700934 56.646453 142.759647
2026-01-04 0.129945 0.610028 2.265589 7.626317 22.911221 60.904603 155.992407